Over the weekend, Donald Trump held his first public rally since July in Arizona. He belched out his usual assortment of lies (and one accidental truth) in front of thousands of followers, who are convinced that Trump will run again in 2024. He hasn’t said one way or the other, but that snake-eating-its-own-tail scenario seems increasingly likely to happen, depending on two factors: if he can “dominate the 2022 midterms as a so-called kingmaker inside the GOP,” as CNN put it, and Joe Biden’s approval rating.
If Trump’s midterm involvement pays dividends in November, people in his orbit say, it is increasingly likely that he will mount a comeback presidential bid in 2024. Three Trump advisers said his behavior in public and private over the past four months has left them with the impression that he does plan to run again as long as he thinks he can win. One of those indicators is Trump’s increased outreach to pollster Tony Fabrizio, who compiled a 27-page autopsy after the 2020 election that detailed which demographics had drifted away from Trump and sought to explain the reasons for those shifts.
Those closest to Trump believe he’ll run in 2024 if “Biden’s approval rating is still hovering in the low 40s next spring because, Trump and his team believe, that would indicate a loss of support for Biden among independent voters.” Biden is currently around 42 percent, but “if Biden is back up to 46 percent approval or above, everyone is universally in agreement that Trump is out,” an aide told CNN.
Four percent. That’s the measly difference between Trump running for president again in 2024, or spending his golden years wandering around his Mar-A-Lago kingdom. Make of that what you will the next time you get a phone call from a pollster.