On occasion, optimism can reign when things are going well. In fact, there were more than a few moments in Week 7 in which it felt like a 5-0 week was very much on the table in this space. After all, the Los Angeles Rams led in the second half and the Miami Dolphins (getting 8.5 points!) were tied well into the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles. Alas, neither game broke in our favor, even as Week 7 was profitable on the whole at 3-2.
We press on to Week 8 with strong resolve and, before getting into the five-pack of picks, we take a glance at the overall picture.
- Week 7: 3-2
- 2023 Season: 20-13-2
Come get these winners.
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) over Minnesota Vikings — Widely Available
The Packers are in the mud with three straight losses, including a maddening effort against Denver a week ago. Now, Green Bay gets to be back at home and outdoors against a Minnesota team some are buying now after two straight wins. I think it’s a great spot for the Packers and I’m happy to take the 1.5 in a game I think they win on the field.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) over Houston Texans — FanDuel
The battle of the top two overall picks is here and, in a wild swing from preseason expectations, Houston is now laying 3.5 points on the road in Charlotte. I’m going to say that’s a bit of an overreaction. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, so there isn’t a big edge there for Carolina, but I think the implication that Houston is nearly a touchdown better than Carolina on a neutral field is a bit much.
Indianapolis Colts (+1) over New Orleans Saints — Widely Available
Indy got us home last week but managed to lose a game they probably should’ve won. New Orleans has dropped two straight as well, so this is one that both teams need. Frankly, I just don’t think the gap between these teams is large enough to make New Orleans a road favorite, and I continue to think the market is undervaluing Minshew.
Cleveland Browns (+4) over Seattle Seahawks — Caesars
I’m buying the Browns defense, and I’m buying that the gap between Deshaun Watson and PJ Walker isn’t as big as the market thinks it is. Also, this is a game with a spread in the 30’s and I’ll gleefully take four in this spot with the best unit (Cleveland’s defense) on either team.
TEASER: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) over Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions (-1.5) over Las Vegas Raiders — FanDuel
Will everyone in the world have this teaser? Probably. Does that make it a bad bet? No. Is it scary that it seems this clear? Absolutely. But this is basic Wong teaser stuff and, for good measure, we’re fading two bad teams playing on the road against motivated opponents with considerably more talent.
Source: https://uproxx.com/sports/nfl-picks-against-the-spread-over-under-winners-week-8-2023-football-season/
