Every so often, a pick goes haywire and it happens almost immediately. That was the case in Week 3 for us. Granted, we finished the week with a respectable 2-2-1 finish that could’ve easily been 3-2 if not for a backdoor against us on Monday evening. However, it would be hard to be more wrong about a handicap than taking the Denver Broncos (+6.5) against the Miami Dolphins in a game in which Miami put up 70 (yes, 70) points. That was a fun one but, hey, it happens.
We endeavor to give you hideous picks that profit and, so far, it’s going okay. Here’s a look at the year-long progress before handing out the Week 4 winners.
- Week 3: 2-2-1
- 2023 Season: 7-6-2
Come get these winners.
Green Bay Packers (+2) over Detroit Lions — PointsBet/SuperBook
As I type this, there are injury questions on both sides, and perhaps that is why this line is sitting in this range. However, signs point to Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, or both returning for Green Bay, and this line should be a pick’em or Green Bay should be a short favorite in my view. Detroit looked good, particularly on defense, in a home win over Atlanta last week, but this is a short week on the road, and I like Green Bay.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) over Atlanta Falcons — Widely Available
We didn’t give out the Jaguars last week or anything, but Jacksonville murdered a lot of survivor pools with a bad loss to Houston. Atlanta’s bandwagon derailed a bit as well, avoiding a full-blown “buy low, sell high” situation here, but this line opened well above three in the preseason and early-season markets and I think it’s bargain. There is a chance I’m just flat-out wrong on Jacksonville, but this is a test for that and against a Falcons team that remains a touch overvalued for my taste.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) over Miami Dolphins — DraftKings/BetMGM
If you’ve followed the column for a long time, you had to know this would be on the list. As noted above, Miami looked incredible last week. Buffalo has been quite good the last two weeks, but many remember a rather epic flop in Week 1 against Zach Wilson. This line should be at least three and you can get 2.5. I just have to do it.
TEASER: Philadelphia Eagles (-2) over Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys (-0.5) over New England Patriots — DraftKings
This is pretty square. I acknowledge that. I’m also quite low on Washington and New England in a vacuum while liking the spots for both Philly and Dallas. The other teaser leg I like this week is the Ravens, so I’m sure I will regret leaving them off, but here we are.
New York Giants (PK) over Seattle Seahawks — Caesars
This is a relative desperation spot for New York at 1-2. The Giants’ only win was thoroughly unimpressive against Arizona, and Seattle has won two straight. There are some -1’s in the market but, with pick’em available, that would be a nice number to grab.
Source: https://uproxx.com/sports/nfl-picks-against-the-spread-over-under-winners-week-4-2023-football-season/
