With only six days remaining in the 2021-22 regular season, very little is settled at the top of the Eastern Conference. By virtue of a timely four-game winning streak, the Miami Heat are the clear leaders for the No. 1 overall seed, with Jimmy Butler and company holding a two-game lead with only three games remaining. Even Miami must keep a close eye on things, however, with the potential that the dangerous Brooklyn Nets, or even the reigning Eastern Conference finalist Atlanta Hawks, could be lurking in the No. 8 spot and the reality that the Heat haven’t been dominant from wire to wire.
From there, the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers are separated by only a half-game from No. 2 through No. 4. That leaves a great deal of uncertainty, with FiveThirtyEight projecting Boston and Philadelphia for 51 wins and Milwaukee for only 50 at this juncture. Some of that relative negativity toward Milwaukee could be schedule-related, with road trips to Chicago and Cleveland wrapped around a pivotal home game against Boston. Milwaukee is the reigning champion, though, and even if they slip to No. 4 overall, it’s not as if any team will be salivating to face Giannis Antetokounmpo at the peak of his powers.
The Celtics and 76ers have uncertainty of their own, with Boston now navigating life without Robert Williams, at least for a while. The Celtics have been unbelievable for a few months now, but the absence of Williams leaves a sizable hole in athleticism, rim protection and rim pressure on offense, with the Celtics putting a lot of stock in an elite defense. Philadelphia famously pushed chips into the middle for James Harden, and it is easy to see why, but the Sixers will need the absolute best from Harden and Joel Embiid. The Sixers do have a (very) easy remaining schedule, with Indiana (twice) and Detroit on the horizon to inform a 3-1 projection that could turn into 4-0 quite easily.
Bizarrely, the Play-In results may do more to inform things than the order of 1-4 in the East, simply because no one wants to see Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at full strength in a best-of-seven series. Homecourt can come in handy in round two and beyond, though, and that provides a carrot for all four teams at the top to keep the pedal on the ground for most of the week, or at least until things are settled in official fashion.
What does the pecking order look like in this week’s DIME power rankings? Let’s find out.
1. Phoenix Suns (62-16, Last week — 1st)
The list really begins at No. 2. Phoenix is in the top three of the NBA in offense and defense while leading the league in net rating and win-loss record. The Suns have lost two in a row, but they are clearly pedaling off and getting ready for the second season.
2. Memphis Grizzlies (55-23, Last week — 2nd)
As explored last week in this space, the Grizzlies are somehow 20-2 without Ja Morant in the lineup. It can’t be overstated how crazy that is, and Memphis beat Phoenix this week. Obviously, the Grizzlies don’t have the overall profile of the Suns, but they are a clear No. 2 right now, especially in light of an active seven-game winning streak.
3. Boston Celtics (49-30, Last week — 3rd)
There is a temptation to flip Miami into this spot after Boston lost to the Heat this week. It wouldn’t be crazy to do. Still, the Celtics are 26-6 in the last 32 games with a positive net rating well into double-digits. It’s fair to worry about Boston for as long as Robert Williams is out, but perhaps they can last long enough in the playoffs to facilitate his return to action.
4. Miami Heat (51-28, Last week — 7th)
A four-game winning streak works wonders under any circumstances. For Miami, it comes after a severe downturn and the last three victories came on the road against quality opponents. The Heat can still bog down on offense, but they feel dangerous and have the inside track at the No. 1 seed in the East.
5. Dallas Mavericks (49-30, Last week — 5th)
It was a weird week for Dallas so it makes sense to leave them in the same spot. The Mavericks lost to the Wizards by 32 points, only to follow it up by beating the Bucks. Dallas should also be favored in the last three games, and a 52-win season would be rather impressive after a 16-18 start.
6. Milwaukee Bucks (48-30, Last week — 4th)
Milwaukee lost by 34 points to the Clippers this week, but a closer look at that game reveals that the Bucks… didn’t play anyone. The head-to-head loss to Dallas (at home) causes the drop but, candidly, Milwaukee is still the team that should garner the most trust in the East as the playoffs approach.
7. Golden State Warriors (50-29, Last week — 11th)
After losing seven of eight, the Warriors stopped the bleeding with a comeback win over Utah and a road victory over Sacramento. Golden State is still in the same predicament, though, as everyone can see that the Warriors are not a real contender without Stephen Curry. It’s a waiting game until he returns, but the expectation is he’s back for their first round series.
8. Philadelphia 76ers (48-30, Last week — 9th)
It was a very good weekend for the Sixers, with Philadelphia absolutely throttling Charlotte and then defeating Cleveland the next night. That doesn’t erase some of the worry about James Harden’s relatively ordinary play, but having Joel Embiid helps in myriad ways.
9. Denver Nuggets (47-32, Last week — 8th)
Nikola Jokic has been even more ridiculous than usual lately. He is averaging 34.8 points and 16.2 rebounds per game over the last five, shooting 70 percent in the process, and Jokic is still averaging more than eight assists per contest. Denver is 4-1 as a result, but the worry with the Nuggets headed into the playoffs might be that they are 31-7 against sub-.500 teams and just 10-25 against tougher competition.
10. Toronto Raptors (45-33, Last week — 10th)
Toronto’s five-game winning streak ended with a tight-fought loss to the Heat over the weekend. There is no great shame in that, and the Raptors have the chance to get that one back with big home games against Atlanta and the Philadelphia in the next few days. Oh, and it seems like absolutely no one wants to play the Raptors in the first round for several reasons, ranging from customs to vaccination requirements to the presence of Nick Nurse and a talented, flexible roster.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves (45-34, Last week — 12th)
The Wolves haven’t won 48 games or more in a season since 2003-04. They have a chance to do it this week. Minnesota has home dates with Washington, San Antonio, and Chicago, and that is pretty manageable. Either way, it’s been a very, very good season in the Twin Cities, with an outside shot at leaping into the top-6 in the West.
12. Atlanta Hawks (41-37, Last week — 16th)
The remaining slate will be interesting for Nate McMillan’s team after a five-game winning streak put the Hawks into a much more favorable position than they were in a few weeks ago. Atlanta has two very winnable games (home for the Wizards and at the Rockets) but also two challenging spots in Toronto and Miami. Can they finish 3-1 or 4-0? If not, the Nets might catch them for No. 8 and send Atlanta back to the 9-10 game against Charlotte.
13. Brooklyn Nets (40-38, Last week — 6th)
Brooklyn has suddenly lost four of six at an inopportune time, ceding control of their play-in destiny to Atlanta in the process. Kevin Durant’s 55-point eruption went for naught over the weekend, and the Nets also gave one away to Milwaukee. There is still appropriate fear of the Nets, but it’s not as if they are red-hot right now.
14. Utah Jazz (46-32, Last week — 13th)
The Jazz are 1-6 in the last seven games, giving up more than 1.2 points per possession over that sample. Utah can’t seem to hold a double-digit lead, and they are squandering the league’s best offense, at least to some degree. With potential turmoil on the horizon in the offseason if they don’t right the ship in a hurry, this is a tense time and a top-6 seed is no longer assured.
15. Chicago Bulls (45-33, Last week — 14th)
If you want to know why the Bulls are this low, it’s a few things. For one, Chicago is 1-12 against the top four teams in the East, and that says a lot. The Bulls are also just 6-12 in the last 18 games, making it fair to say they aren’t exactly playing their best basketball down the stretch.
16. Charlotte Hornets (40-38, Last week — 17th)
The 30-point beatdown Charlotte suffered in Philadelphia was a pretty harsh reminder of the East’s hierarchy, but the Hornets are still in fine shape. They will be heavily favored in two of the final four games, and the Hornets have a puncher’s chance against any possible play-in opponent.
17. L.A. Clippers (39-40, Last week — 18th)
With Paul George in the lineup, the Clippers are 2-1, and L.A. has absolutely nothing to play for this week as the No. 8 seed is locked up. That can give Ty Lue some team to prep his playoff approach, and the Clippers are dangerous.
18. Cleveland Cavaliers (43-36, Last week — 15th)
The Cavs are 8-15 in the last 23 games and they desperately need reinforcements. Cleveland has only a 1.5-game lead over the red-hot Hawks for 7th, and the Cavaliers are in danger of having a once-promising season end in the lottery.
19. San Antonio Spurs (33-45, Last week — 19th)
San Antonio has won six out of seven, building a two-game lead over the No. 11 seed Lakers. Four of those seven wins came over Houston and Portland, which doesn’t tell you much, but the Spurs held serve. It’s a good thing they did, too, as the Spurs close with the Nuggets, Wolves, Warriors and Mavericks, meaning nothing is assured.
20. New Orleans Pelicans (34-44, Last week — 21st)
The Pelicans haven’t clinched a Play-in berth just yet, but it’s close. They are 7-4 in the last 11 games and still have Sacramento and Portland on the schedule. Honestly, it’s a remarkable turnaround after a hideous start, and they could threaten a spot in the top eight given the variance associated with the single-elimination format.
21. New York Knicks (35-44, Last week — 20th)
It was far too little and too late, but the Knicks are 10-6 in the last 16 games. New York’s net rating (+6.6) has been good as well, and R.J. Barrett may be making at least a mini-leap from a production standpoint. For a dose of reality, though, the Knicks did lose at home by double figures to both Cleveland and Charlotte this week.
22. Washington Wizards (34-44, Last week — 22nd)
In rather typical Wizards fashion, Washington isn’t losing games that would probably help them in the lottery mix, even after being eliminated. The Wizards are on their way to a win total in the 34-38 range, and few things are more on-brand than that.
23. Los Angeles Lakers (31-47, Last week — 23rd)
This feels unbelievable, but the Lakers have the second-worst record in the NBA since early February. They are 5-19 over that sample with a terrible defense (119.5 points allowed per 100) and six straight losses might ensure an early start to the offseason. They’re not dead yet, but Los Angeles is two games out of the Play-in with four to play. It’s been a disaster.
24. Sacramento Kings (29-50, Last week — 24th)
Since our last edition, the Kings are 2-1. That is more wins than losses! Nevermind that the wins came against Houston and the loss was by 19 points at home. 2-1!
25. Detroit Pistons (23-56, Last week — 25th)
Detroit is now eliminated from the No. 1 spot entering the lottery after three straight wins. That is fitting for a team that has been more than 10 points per 100 possessions better since than the All-Star break. That doesn’t mean the Pistons are a lock for a playoff jump next year, but they have been frisky for a long while and Cade Cunningham is showing why he was last summer’s consensus top pick.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (23-55, Last week — 27th)
With the bevy of injuries and tanking management, the Thunder have been sending out rosters that, without hyperbole, belong in the G League. Still, they have picked off a win or two and, once again, Mark Daigneault has gotten a lot out of a terrible roster situation. They’re still bad, but it’s something.
28. Houston Rockets (20-59, Last week — 28th)
Houston won three of four in late March, and it was like they realized what the ramifications could be if they kept winning. Four straight home losses ensued even if, to be fair, they were largely competitive.
29. Orlando Magic (20-59, Last week — 29th)
Orlando was frisky-ish for a while, but the tank is on. The Magic lost by 30 to the Knicks, at home, on Sunday to keep pace with the Rockets for pole position in the lottery race. Neither team can “afford” to win again.
27. Indiana Pacers (25-54, Last week — 26th)
The Pacers have been deploying some laughable active rosters for the last few weeks. Indiana is a on a seven-game losing streak, giving up 128.7 points per 100 possessions. That should be tough to do, but it actually matches the defensive talent the Pacers are utilizing in their current state.
30. Portland Trail Blazers (27-51, Last week — 30th)
It helps the organization long-term to pick up a top-five pick, and that has to be said. What also has to be said is just how bad Portland has been for nearly two months. The Blazers are 2-17 in the last 19 games with the worst defense in the NBA by more than three points per 100 possessions. It’s notably bad, even if Portland isn’t in the basement of the actual standings.
Source: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/nba-power-rankings-2022-april-east-playoff-race/
