What To Watch For As The Lakers And Rockets Clash In The Conference Semifinals

Four of the biggest stars in the NBA will collide on Friday night when the Lakers and Rockets tip off their second round series. It’s a battle between a championship favorite and the West’s perennial upset candidate. It’s a clash of the smallest team left in the NBA playoffs and one of the biggest. It’s LeBron James vs. James Harden, a battle we’ve never seen in the postseason.

Los Angeles hasn’t played in a week, biding their time in the Bubble, while Houston just gritted out a wild Game 7 win over Oklahoma City two nights ago. That also means the Lakers are the healthier team at the top, as James Harden continued to look tired at the end of the Rockets’ first round games and Russell Westbrook only recently returned from a quad injury.

Those are just the biggest bullet points. Here are some of the other factors that will decide this series.

The battle of the second stars

The last time these two teams played at full strength was just after the trade deadline in early February. That game was decided in large part by Russell Westbrook outplaying Anthony Davis. This was during Westbrook’s best stretch of the season, when he was a nightly presence on social media thanks to highlight-reel finishes against bigger defenders following Houston’s decision to go all-in on hyper smallball. Like a linebacker, Westbrook was able to put up 41 against the Lakers’ third-ranked defense by putting his shoulder into Davis time and again at the rim to provide balance to the Rockets’ half court offense.

On the other end, as the Rockets adjusted to their center-less lineup, they were aggressive sending double-teams at Davis in the post. The Lakers created an early lead because of Davis’ passing in those situations, but as has been increasingly the case in the Bubble, the Lakers’ role players stopped making their shots late as Westbrook and Harden closed the game.

Though Davis scored 32 of his own and was incredible defensively late in the game, the combination of Westbrook’s inside pressure, Harden’s perimeter play-making, and the team’s overall shooting was too much for the Lakers to deal with.

But that version of Westbrook seems far away right now. When he tried to take over late in Game 6, the results were miserable, including an air-ball and multiple turnovers. All in all, in two slugfest elimination games against the Thunder, Westbrook had nine turnovers compared to five assists and averaged just 19.5 points per game.

Yet Davis’ defense matters here, too. Much was made of Houston winning in February because of the overreaction to their trade for Robert Covington, but the game was pretty evenly matched. James missed a late three that tilted things in Houston’s favor. Davis was a monster on defense to close the game. The underestimated part of the Rockets playing small is that they usually force the opponent to do the same, and not many teams have a great option when that time comes. Oklahoma City refused to put Danilo Gallinari in at center even if it might have helped their defense, but the Lakers’ choice is much simpler. JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard combined for just 20 minutes in that February matchup, while Davis was at center almost full-time. The Lakers can size down and not sacrifice much, so long as Davis is a two-way beast on a nightly basis.

Harden and James will still be the focal points of their team’s schemes on offense, but the Lakers traded for the ultimate small-ball trump card for a reason, and this is the series where he can show his worth.

Role player matchups to watch

When these teams faced off early in 2020, Jeff Green was not on the Rockets. He has increasingly filled in as the team’s nominal center and could get a shot defending Davis post-ups early on. Because he can also match up with James on switches, playing Green more alongside P.J. Tucker or Robert Covington could allow the Rockets to help neutralize the James/Davis pick-and-roll more effectively, taking away some of those easy lobs James is so good at finding.

It might sound crazy, but Vogel could consider going to his centers a little more in the first game or two of the series. The Thunder refused to go small, but they also took Houston to a Game 7, so it didn’t hurt them all that much. So long as the Lakers can keep enough shooting and wing defense on the floor with Howard or McGee, it’s not a bad thing to see if they can turn the tide of a game with their rim protection or defense. Tucker shot 37 percent from deep in the first round but Oklahoma City decided it was fine to sacrifice those shots to him and Green so long as Steven Adams could stay on the floor. If Howard or McGee can have a better series than Adams did, that would be gigantic for the Lakers.

What happens in the half court stays in the half court

As much as the teams are defined by their stars, neither is particularly effective scoring in the half court. That’s why the secondary stars are so important, but it’s also why the team that is able to get out and run the most might walk away the winner.

The Lakers scored a whopping 62 of their 111 points in that Feb. 6 meeting on the fast break despite each team turning it over 16 times apiece. In the open court, Los Angeles was able to actually take advantage of the chemistry between James and Alex Caruso as well as the Lakers’ size on lobs and easy post-ups for Davis.

James lately hasn’t been able to bully players into layups like in years past, meaning the Lakers’ ace in the hole is not as effective. In order to create great offense, they will need to push Houston’s transition defense and get to the rim off of turnovers and misses as much as possible.

This is also where Westbrook is best. Apart from the cross matches referenced earlier, Westbrook still maintains the speed and strength to ram his way to layups and free throws at will when he’s healthy. James’ increasingly brilliant passing or Westbrook’s creative, overwhelming transition attacks winning out — and which team takes care of the ball best to prevent those plays in the first place — could decide which team has an easier time scoring in this series.

Is Kyle Kuzma the difference?

The Lakers have gotten a new gear from Kuzma defensively in the Bubble. That has been huge for a Los Angeles team that had no true wing defenders most of the season and is now without Avery Bradley as well. Don’t let James’ late-game stop against Paul George in the seeding games fool you, the King is not locking down on Harden for 40 minutes a night at age 35.

But could Kuzma? As Pete Zayas of the Lakers outlined in his latest video, it’s not just that the team had to rely on Kuzma or that his results were better against an equally shallow Portland wing rotation. Kuzma has genuinely improved his defensive skills as well.

As Luguentz Dort showed us in the last series, part of Harden getting tired and making mistakes is wearing him out by making him work for shots. Functional defensive strength has always been the underestimated part of keeping Harden in check, and even the rookie Dort is already one of the sturdiest dudes in basketball.

Dort was able to deny Harden’s drives and crowd his space on jumpers in a way we really haven’t seen at all during Harden’s career. And while Kuzma’s body looks nothing like Dort’s, the Lakers forward can hold his ground defensively and his length may allow him to stay with Harden, too.

In that February matchup, Lakers coach Frank Vogel did not put Kuzma on Harden at all. Their Aug. 6 contest in the Bubble is moot because James and Westbrook both missed it, but Kuzma hardly defended Harden then, either. The job was mostly left to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, though one area where Westbrook was especially important in the winter game was forcing bad cross-matches onto the Lakers that often left Davis on an island.

Vogel has thinned out his rotation recently and Kuzma is playing more. If the Lakers want their best guys to play as much as possible, Kuzma will need to at least get a crack at Harden early in the series. Should his newfound defensive consistency prove legit, it would go a long way in limiting one of the best offensive weapons in the NBA.

Source: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/houston-rockets-los-angeles-lakers-preview-stats-matchups/